Week 38 of the ATP Tour sees players travel to San Diego, California, and Metz, France for two ATP 250 tournaments, at OKBet sports betting site ready to predict who will win.
The players have either taken a short break following the US Open or have been on Davis Cup duty, and the tour returns this week with two relatively low-key ATP 250s.
The big names in action this week are at the Moselle Open in Metz, where top-10 stars Daniil Medvedev and defending champion Hubert Hurkacz are competing, while Dan Evans is the highest-ranked player in San Diego.
Trends And Conditions
Starting with Metz, this is an indoor hard court tournament played on a Slamcourt surface that was once thought to be on the faster side, but it appeared to be slower in 2021.
It was “not a fast, fast indoor court,” according to Pablo Carreno Busta, but it still produced 81% holds (which is also its eight-year average) and 48% tie break matches (2% more than its eight-year average).
Hubert Hurkacz became the first number one seed to win Metz since 2012 in 2021, so top seeds don’t have the best track record here, and there have been a number of reasonably priced finalists.
With Betfair, Aljaz Bedene (33/1), Matthias Bachinger (qualifier), and Benoit Paire (35/1) have all made the title match at good odds, while qualifier Peter Gojowczyk won it in 2017.
The San Diego Open was granted a one-year license in 2021, but due to a lack of Chinese tournaments in 2022, it will be given another year on the tour.
It’s played at the Barnes Tennis Center on the same Laykold surface that hosted the majority of the US Open Series last year, but it didn’t appear to be the fastest.
There were 79% serve holds and only 22% of the matches ended in a tie break, with the finalists being renowned slow court players Casper Ruud and Cam Norrie.
Much of that is due to the slightly cooler temperatures in San Diego at this time of year than we saw in Cincinnati and New York, but it’s supposed to be 28C by Friday, so if there’s plenty of sun, it’ll probably play slightly faster.
Draw – Moselle Open
Daniil Medvedev, the odds-on favourite at 8/11 with tennis betting sites like OKbet Sports Betting in the top half of this Metz draw, has dropped to fourth in the rankings after an unsuccessful defence of his US Open title.
The Russian simply hasn’t been in the same sort of form that we saw from him in 2021 for the majority of 2022, and given that he’s only won one title (Los Cabos) since that US Open triumph just over a year ago, he appears very short here as odds-on favourite.
And the one player who stands out as far better value in Medvedev’s top half of the draw is 28/1 shot Ugo Humbert, who won the Rennes Challenger this weekend and is playing in his home tournament.
Humbert, who was born in Metz, has dropped from world number 26 the last time he played the Moselle Open (in 2021) to 139 this time around after a rough season, but his fortunes may be changing.
Humbert’s game is designed for fast surfaces, and he went unbroken in Rennes despite facing a total of 21 break chances, so now is the time to get with Humbert.
He has a chance to avenge his US Open loss in round one to Benjamin Bonzi in Metz, and if he gets through that, he shouldn’t be afraid of Holger Rune in quickish conditions.
Tennis Betting Strategy During Live Play
In the bottom half of the draw, Sebastian Korda appears to have a good chance to add to his one ATP Tour title (Parma on clay in 2021).
Korda has struggled this season after breaking through at the top level last season, and injuries haven’t helped his cause, but he should be in good shape after only playing 40 matches in 2022.
He’s proven to be capable on all surfaces, and the only player he should be concerned about in this half of the draw is defending champion Hubert Hurkacz, who defeated Korda to win the Delray Beach title in January 2021.
Hurkacz, on the other hand, remains an enigma and a difficult player to predict after losing early at the US Open a few weeks ago to add to his early exit at Wimbledon.
At the odds (14/1 vs 5/1) I’m happy to take Korda over Hurkacz this time in Metz.
Draw for the San Diego Open
This appears to be a very open San Diego draw, and frankly, it lacks quality, with world number 25 Dan Evans as the high seed and Jenson Brooksby the only other player in the top-50.
On paper, there appears to be a good chance for Evans to win his second main level title, or for Brooksby or Brandon Nakashima to win their first at this level.
However, all three are too short in the betting for me, with Evans having just returned from Davis Cup duty in Glasgow. He’s had to travel a long distance to California, and Brooksby doesn’t impress me with his stamina at a price like 9/2 Unibet.
Nakashima hasn’t advanced past the quarterfinals of any tournament in 2022, including Challengers, so I’m willing to look further down the market for a spot in San Diego that offers value.
In the top half, I believe Marcos Giron is due for a change of fortune after losing to Frances Tiafoe, Roberto Bautista Agut (twice), and Nick Kyrgios this summer.
Giron is from California, so he’ll be able to go home after New York and prepare well for this week, and his draw looks favorable, so he should be able to make the semis at the very least from Q2.
Then, if he faces Evans in the final four, fatigue may set in for the Brit, and Giron may be the more motivated player this week, so at 12/1 on bet365, I’m backing Giron to finish in the top half.
In the bottom half, I’m going with 33/1 shot Marc-Andrea Huesler, who played so well a few weeks ago on this same Laykold surface in Winston-Salem.
As a qualifier, Huesler advanced to the semi-finals of that tournament, winning five matches before falling 7-6, 7-6 to Laslo Djere, the same number he’d need to win to lift the San Diego trophy on Sunday.
So we know he’s capable, with the Swiss man defeating defending Winston-Salem champ Ilya Ivashka and hot British prospect Jack Draper, and I see him as the wrong underdog against Daniel Elahi Galan.
Galan’s victory over an injured Stefanos Tsitsipas at the US Open, where the latter said he played “like an amateur,” has made the Colombian clay courter far too short in the betting against Huesler in my opinion.
Huesler’s awkward lefty net-rushing game should be as effective in San Diego as it was in Winston-Salem, and if he can beat Galan, his draw looks decent.
Nakashima would be difficult, but not impossible given Nakashima’s recent poor record in quarter finals (lost six of his last seven), and Huesler, who had his US Open tennis betting odds hurt by drawing Denis Shapovalov in round one (Shapo won in five), appears to be the value.
Pedro Martinez has had a terrible run since winning Santiago on clay in February, losing 17 of his last 23 matches, so he is unlikely to be a factor this week.
Jeff Wolf has been playing well this summer and defeated Roberto Bautista Agut at the US Open, so he has a chance as well, but at the prices, I’m happy to take a big-priced one in this half of the draw.
Brooksby always appears to have some part of his body taped up, and perhaps his style of play is taking a toll on his body, so I’m not keen on him at 9/2 this week.
Conclusion
In Metz, I’m going one point each way on Ugo Humbert and one point to win on Seb Korda, and in San Diego, I’m going one point each way on Huesler and one point to win on Giron.
