As historic seasons come to a close for Aaron Judge and Paul Goldschmidt, the race for Most Valuable Player appears to be all but over due to candidates who are running away with it in their respective leagues.
When we get down to the final 30 games of the season, the focus in Major League Baseball shifts to two things: the races for the playoffs and the races for awards. This time of year, superstar players have the opportunity to put the finishing touches on their resumes for a chance at some hardware, all while competing in games with extremely high stakes for their teams, if those teams are in contention.
The most important award competition, the race for Most Valuable Player, may present the voters with an easy choice this time around, given that each league already possesses a clear front-runner at this point in the season.
This does not rule out the possibility of a surprise participant appearing out of nowhere to spoil the festivities (Shohei Ohtani we are looking at you). The odds, however, paint a pretty clear picture of who is expected to win the Most Valuable Player award for this particular competition.
AL MVP Odds
-1200 for Aaron Judge.
Shohei Ohtani +550
Jose Ramirez +10000
Yordan Alvarez +25000
Vlad Guerrero, Jr. +25000
Jose Altuve +25000
Julio Rodriguez +25000
Plus 25.000 for Anthony Rizzo
At this point, there are really only two contenders left in this race. Because he is having a historic home run hitting season, Aaron Judge is the overwhelming favorite to win the Most Valuable Player award. Judge is currently on track to score 63 runs, which would shatter the previous single-season record held by Roger Maris for the franchise.
Judge is currently in first place in all of the following categories: fWAR, home runs, runs, RBIs, slugging, and wRC+. According to all of the statistical metrics, he has earned the title of most valuable player.
Having said that, we should never completely write off Shohei Ohtani’s chances. The fact that he is baseball’s lone two-way superstar means that he will at the very least be able to stop Judge from cruising to an undisputed MVP award, as there are voters who will recognize and appreciate his singular candidacy.
NL MVP Odds
Paul Goldschmidt -1400
Nolan Arenado +2500
Freddie Freeman +3000
Plus 4000 for Trea Turner
Mookie Betts +5000
Francisco Lindor +5000
Plus 5000 for Austin Riley
Pete Alonso +8000
Manny Machado +8000
Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, who both had outstanding seasons while Paul Goldschmidt’s team was led by the Red Birds, should receive the majority of the votes for the Most Valuable Player award.
When everything is said and done, Goldy will come out on top, and he even has a good chance of becoming the first player to win the Triple Crown in the American League since Miguel Cabrera did it in 2012, which was ten years ago.
The fact that all of the players listed above would have been candidates for MVP in previous seasons is one of the craziest things about the race for NL MVP. That goes to show how much better the game is these days.
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