- Chris Raybon has five picks highlighted as his go-to bets for Week 2’s 1 p.m. ET slate.
- Raybon’s bets and breakdowns range from props to sides and totals.
NFL OKBet Sports Odds & Picks
|*Click on a pick to skip ahead*|
|Jaguars vs. Colts|
|Panthers vs. Giants|
|Buccaneers vs. Saints|
|Jets vs. Browns|
|Commanders vs. Lions|
You’ve probably heard about the Colts’ perennial struggles in Jacksonville by now. Let me remind you, in case you haven’t already:
- Since the 2014 season, the Colts have not won in Jacksonville.
- Since 2015, the Jaguars are 6-0 SU at home against the Colts, winning by an average of 16.8 points per game.
- Since 2015, the Jaguars have gone 6-0 against the spread (ATS) at home against the Colts, winning by an average of 20.1 points per game.
- The Jaguars have won SU as the underdog in all four previous meetings, with an average margin of victory of 11.5 and a cover margin of 19.3.
It’s not surprising that the Colts have struggled in this game. The familiarity of divisional matchups acts as a leveler. The Colts, as a dome team, are unaccustomed to playing in the hot and humid Jacksonville climate.
But there’s more to this game than just a streak that favors Jacksonville. For the second week in a row, the Colts’ best defensive player (LB Shaquille Leonard) has been ruled out. With a quad issue, their best pass catcher (WR Michael Pittman) was demoted from a limited practice participant on Wednesday to a DNP on Thursday and Friday. Another of their starting wide receivers, Alec Pierce, was ruled out with a concussion.
Meanwhile, the Jaguars did not even have a player listed on the final injury report.
Combine a newly acquired, aging quarterback with few pass catchers on offense outside of Pittman and a defense leader missing (Leonard), and you have an underwhelming, mediocre team that can’t beat a team like the Texans on the road.
The Jaguars are a much more difficult opponent for the Colts. In Week 1, their new-look offense led by Doug Pederson and Press Taylor averaged 6.1 yards per play against Washington. And Jacksonville’s defensive strength is stopping the run (3.0 yards per carry allowed on 28 attempts), which perfectly aligns with the Colts’ offensive goals.
Week 2 underdogs by 6 points or less coming off an outright loss in Week 1 are 62-34-2 (65%) since 2005, beating the spread by an average of 1.9 points per game, according to our Action Labs data.
Home ‘dogs in this spot have been even better, going 26-12 (68%) ATS and beating the closing number by an average of 2.6 points.
Sportsbook PH OKBets Quick pick: Jaguars +3.
This is a great spot to sell high on the Giants.
While Daniel Jones is 13-6 (68%) ATS on the road, he’s just 7-12 (37%) ATS at home. This is still an offense that was held scoreless for the first 34 minutes of the game in Week 1, one that featured Richie James Jr. as its top target and David Sills as a WR who ran a route 57% of the time. And one whose most explosive pass catchers — Wan’Dale Robinson (out-knee) and Kadarius Toney (questionable hamstring) — are both hurt.
The Panthers will be able to use Christian McCaffrey to exploit a Giants linebacking corps that is absolutely horrendous in pass coverage. The Giants’ starting linebackers are Tae Crowder and Austin Calitro. Crowder has earned a bottom-15 percentile coverage grade from PFF every year of his career.
Calitro is an undrafted free agent from 2017 who made his first start in nearly three years last week, grading out as the worst linebacker in the league in coverage.
Combined, those LBs allowed seven completions on eight targets for 102 yards and two TDs, with both scores going to RB Dontrell Hilliard. Good luck with CMC.
The Giants will also be without lost No. 2 cornerback Aaron Robinson. Adoree Jackson is great, but he can’t cover D.J. Moore and Robbie Anderson at the same time.
As I’ve pointed out many times, the key to beating Baker Mayfield is getting pressure. The Browns were able to do that, pressuring him on 42.4% of his dropbacks last week, fifth-highest of Week 1. The Giants, meanwhile, registered a pressure on only 25.4% of Ryan Tannehill’s dropbacks, fifth-lowest — and that was with them blitzing on 45.7% of his dropbacks.
Per Action Labs, Week 2 ‘dogs coming off a close loss close by four or fewer points are 26-14 (65%) ATS in Week 2 since 2005. And during that same span, ‘dogs by 6 points or fewer coming off an ATS loss in Week 1 have gone 56-32-2 (64%) in Week 2.
OKBet Sportsbook Ph Quickslip: Panthers +1.5
This is not the same Bucs offense that played in Dallas last Sunday night.
In Week 1, the Bucs scored 19 points while running 33 times and passing 29 times. Although the Saints struggled to stop the run against the Falcons’ unconventional rushing attack led by Cordarrelle Patterson and Marcus Mariota, the Saints are consistently among the NFL’s best run defenses and present a more difficult matchup on the ground than the Cowboys.
However, if the Bucs try to air it out, they may struggle even more. Tom Brady failed to throw for 240 yards in four of his five games against the Saints as a member of the Buccaneers. He only did it once (last season in New Orleans), and he made three turnovers, including a game-winning pick-six.
Because they can get interior pressure, the Saints have a formula for success against Brady, and Marcus Lattimore consistently holds Mike Evans below his normal averages.
The Bucs’ offensive line is also a concern this season. Last week against Dallas, their three new interior line starters allowed five pressures and four hurries. According to Pro Football Focus, left tackle Donovan Smith (elbow) is questionable, and his replacement, Josh Wells, allowed two pressures and a sack in just 19 snaps last week. The Saints defeated the Buccaneers 9-0 the last time these two teams met.
The Buccaneers have three quality cornerbacks in Carlton Davis, Jamel Dean, and Sean Murphy-Bunting who can compete with Michael Thomas, Jarvis Landry, and Chris Olave. The Bucs, with Vita Vea anchoring their interior line, are also perennially one of the NFL’s best run defenses, which doesn’t bode well for a Saints running game that is dealing with injuries to both Alvin Kamara (questionable ribs) and Mark Ingram (questionable-ankle).
I’m splitting my unit for the entire game and the first half in case one of these teams falls significantly behind. Brady in comeback mode is still Brady, and Jameis Winston in comeback mode is prone to allowing the defense six points at any time.
Week 2 Divisional unders are 40-22-2 (65%) since 2005 when the total opens at 43 or higher, according to our Action Labs data.
Wilson finished his debut with four catches on eight targets despite missing most of the first quarter. This week, Wilson should be more involved. “[Jets head coach Robert] Saleh said Wilson didn’t play as much at the start because the Jets were focused on using their 12 personnel (one running back, two tight ends) and 13 personnel (one RB, three tight ends) packages against the Ravens,” Zack Rosenblatt of The Athletic writes.
This week, No. 2 tight end C.J. Uzomah is questionable, leaving behind starter Tyler Conklin a converted wide receiver (Lawrence Cager), a practice-squad call-up (Kenny Yeboah), and a rookie who was a healthy scratch in Week 1 (Jeremy Ruckert).
This week, in addition to more wide receiver packages, Wilson should see an increase in playing time because No. 4 receiver Braxton Berrios, who ran only six fewer routes than Wilson (35) last week, is listed as questionable with a heel injury.
Wilson was moved from the slot to the outside in Week 1, so he should be able to avoid Cleveland’s best cornerback, Denzel Ward, and record at least three catches for the second week in a row.
Here in Washington, I’m selling high. Both of these teams have poor defenses, but the Lions have a quarterback in Jared Goff who is less likely to fumble the ball. This is also a favorable situation for the Lions, who are in their second straight home game and still looking for their first win, while Washington could suffer a setback in its first road game after winning at home last week.
Since 2005, Week 2 home teams facing visitors who covered at home in Week 1 have gone 60-50-2 (55%) ATS, including 8-4 (67%) when favored by less than a field goal.